Access to electricity:

Lanka on par with developed nations

by K.M.H.C.B. Kulatunga

At a time the electricity tariff revision in Sri Lanka has come into sharp focus, it is important to take a closer look at the energy crisis that has affected all other countries in South Asia.

The Government’s heavy investments on power generation projects such as the Norochcholai coal power station, Kerawalapitiya thermal power station and Upper Kotmale Hydropower Station has enabled Sri Lanka to stand tall at a time all its South Asian neighbours are badly affected and experience long power cuts, up to 20 hours a day.

None of the Opposition politicians here, who try to gain petty political mileage, ever talk of Sri Lanka’s ability to face the power crisis with confidence. Once Phase Three of the Norochcholai coal power station is completed by the end of this year, and the entry of the Sampur power station to the national grid in two years, Sri Lanka will be in an even better position.

Sri Lanka is the only country in the South Asian region to offer an uninterrupted power supply from the national grid while all other countries in the region impose power cuts for a major part of every day.

Only 65 percent of Sri Lanka’s households had access to electricity in 2005. It has now gone up to nearly 98 percent due to President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s strong belief that the rural masses too should have access to electricity.

Undoubtedly, Sri Lanka has the highest percentage of population with access to electricity in South Asia while comparative figures, according to last year’s World Bank report, were: Bangladesh 41 percent, India 66.3 percent, Nepal 43.6 percent and Pakistan 66.24 percent. Moreover, all these countries currently impose daily power cuts while Sri Lanka maintains an uninterrupted power supply for the 98 percent of its population.

Generating capacity

Though one-third of India’s population is still in the ‘dark’, the balance two-third which has access to electricity too experience daily power cuts and regular interruptions. The July 2012 India blackout was the largest power outage in its history, occurring as two separate events on July 30 and 31. The outage affected over 620 million people, about nine percent of the world population - exactly half of India’s population, spread across 22 states in the Northern, Eastern and North Eastern India. An estimated 32GW of generating capacity was taken offline in the outage.

Chaos from power cuts is not limited to India; across South Asia, energy security is a policy challenge. Growing demand, with limited supply expansion, are likely to compound the problem. Although no easy task, regional integration and co-operation will be fundamental to resolving the issue, which could simultaneously be the catalyst for closer economic relations.

The power cut that hit India in July highlights the significant energy challenges that the region must face.

Apart from India, Pakistan is another country that has been badly affected. Except in Sri Lanka, the energy crisis exists right across South Asia. Chronic under-investment, lack of strategic planning and entrenched graft has led to similar situations across the region, albeit not so well documented.

The Pakistan Prime Minister suggested last year that energy was a policy priority of his government and that blackouts have reached a peak of up to 16 hours a day in Islamabad. In rural areas, shortages are even more severe, with reports suggesting that as a result of power failures, residents could only expect about two hours of power daily. Additionally, the rate of access to electricity in South Asia, except for Sri Lanka, is among the lowest in the world.

Energy wealthy nations

Paradoxically, South Asia is energy wealthy. Fossil fuels are plentiful, including coal in Pakistan and India, and gas in Bangladesh and Burma. Renewable potential, such as hydropower, could be exploited to a greater extent across the region. Similarly, analysts suggest Pakistan holds substantial wind power potential.

The catalysts for energy shortages are unique for each state, although commonality exists in projections about the future.

Undoubtedly, demand across the region will rise, with national governments suggesting demand growth of four percent on average.

Yet, across South Asia, there is collective anxiety as to how this demand will be met.

The implications are significant. Power cuts and shortages in energy supplies are proving an inhibitor to economic growth, with Pakistan’s Planning Commission arguing that the power crisis shaved three to four percent off its GDP in 2010-11.

In India, industry has vocalised its concerns, which may result in decreased foreign investment, further contracting the country’s already slowing economy.

Energy shortages and resulting economic factors may create socio-political issues, with protests already taking place in Pakistan and India.

As with security issues and continuing economic development, regionalism is the key to greater energy security.

A regional, inter-connected grid could allow South Asia to diversify its energy mix, reducing the growing gap between supply and demand. Some early trends suggest scope for such co-operation exists, with Bhutan supplying hydro-electricity to India. Correspondingly, India is working on a project to supply 55 megawatts of power to Bangladesh and a cross-border power transmission line to Nepal.

Undeniably, as with all aspects of multi-lateral relations, particularly in South Asia, obstacles remain. For all states, however, a secure energy supply is vital and would remove the current ceiling of economic growth that constrains the region.

Allied to this issue, greater energy co-operation may also promote opportunities to not only improve relations, but also expand regional economic links. The lack of these connections is another key factor, limiting South Asia’s economic potential.

Crippling power cuts

Last year’s colossal collapse of India’s power grid, twice in successive days, highlighted how severe the consequences can be if nations do not address their energy demand and supply situation. Hundreds of millions of people were without electricity, there were massive traffic jams on the roads as signals broke down, and factories and businesses came to a standstill.

It is not just India that is struggling with a massive gap in power demand and supply. Crippling power cuts and shortage of energy supply are hurting growth in other South Asian nations such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. The situation is likely to get worse as the demand for energy increases in these countries.

India’s annual energy demand is growing at a rate of nearly four percent. Official figures show shortages of about 10 percent during peak hours. With diversity of these energy resources, cross-border trade could be a game changer to reduce the gap between demand and supply.

In contrast, Sri Lanka has come out of its 1993 gloomy period during which the Government gave up investing on new power generation projects. However, the situation has changed drastically since President Rajapaksa assumed office in 2005.

Sri Lanka had a vision to increase the strength of its national grid to meet the 300MW annual increase of demand for power.

Phase Two and Three of the Norochcholai coal power plant will add a further 600MW of power to the national grid by the end of this year.

Pakistan’s power crisis is going from bad to worse, with demand projected to reach 50,000 megawatts (MW) by 2030 - three times more than the supply currently available in its system.

Nepal has up to 20 hours of power cuts per day during the dry season, which is when most snow-fed rivers run at their lowest.

Reports said that more than half of Bangladesh’s total population still have no access to electricity. The World Bank says about 30 percent of the rural households in Bangladesh have access to grid electricity.

The government insists it has already reached its target of 7,000 MW capacity by 2013. While these nations have unveiled ambitious plans to overcome the situation, some analysts say the solution may actually lie in them pooling together their resources and supplies through a cross-border network.

A traffic jam following power outages in New Delhi in July 2012

At the same time, South Asian nations must look for alternate energy sources to meet future challenges. Some Pakistani coastal areas have also been identified as having the potential to harness wind power. Availability of bright sunshine almost every month of the year makes South Asia an ideal location to generate solar power.

Energy experts say all these resources pooled together through an inter-connected grid could help South Asia secure its energy supplies. With diversity of energy resources, cross-border trade could be a game changer to reduce the gap between demand and supply.

Nepal alone has 200,000 MW of hydropower potential, India’s is around 150,000 MW and Bhutan and Myanmar have 30,000 MW each.

The vast hydroelectric potential apart, experts say, the region’s abundant solar and wind power could help its countries, mainly India, to gradually reduce the use of dirty fossil fuels such as coal and oil.

Collaborative efforts

However, the idea of combining resources has not gained traction in the region.

The efforts for such a collaboration have been slow, mainly because of geopolitics and the lack of infrastructure such as cross-border transmission lines.

There have been calls for South Asian nations to pool their energy resources.

Hydropower development entails using water resources, a sensitive subject in South Asia’s national and regional politics.

Nepal and India have signed agreements to build various hydropower projects on Nepalese rivers, but those have never been implemented because of controversies on water-sharing, the environment and population displacement. Despite these issues, some key developments have started to take place.

Experts point to the increasing amount of hydropower Bhutan is supplying to India. Three Bhutanese hydro-electric projects contribute a significant chunk of power to India’s national grid.

The Himalayan kingdom has also begun work on new hydropower projects totalling more than 11,000 MW. Most of it is said to be meant for the Indian market. Unless South Asian nations iron out their differences, the region’s power crisis looks set to become perennial.

Fortunately, Sri Lanka is making its own headway, thanks to the visionary projects implemented under the Rajapaksa administration.

Sri Lanka is on par with almost all developed nations as far as the population’s access to electricity is concerned. Uninterrupted power supply from the national grid singles out Sri Lanka from all other countries in the region.

Hence, people should learn to use that facility carefully and save energy, instead of talking about the increase of electricity tariffs.

Though the Opposition attempts to project a gloomy picture, that electricity prices have been doubled, the electricity bills of more than 70 percent of households would be increased between Rs. 75 to Rs. 460.

The Government could even reduce the electricity tariff if it introduces 15-20 hour power cuts as experienced by all other countries in the region.

Even after next month’s tariff revision, the Government continues to subsidise electricity.

The masses should not be misled by the Opposition’s campaign and take a closer look at these ground realities.